Remember! The history can repeat itself. The dreadful nightmare of Japanese holy war can happen again. May God save Korea !

Joseph H. Chung, Ph.D. (정희수), Professor of Economics, Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)

(지난 호에 이어)

The anti-China war may take the following process.

First, Washington or Tokyo would induce China to attack Taiwan. There are five conditions under which China is supposed to arrack Taiwan: declaration of Taiwan independence, internal turmoil within Taiwan, deployment of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Taiwan's military alliance with a foreign country and 1992 intra-China consensus for "One-China policy."

Of these five conditions, Taiwan's independence declaration is not likely to happen, because President Tsai ing-wen herself says that Taiwan is de facto independent.

When Washington judges Japan's readiness, Washington or Japan might provoke the violation of one of the three conditions, namely, internal turmoil, deployment of WMD or military alliance of Taiwan.

The Taiwan-China war will become a war between the Taiwan Alliance (U.S. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) and China; it will become TA-China war. The big question is whether the South Korean armed forces will join.

For the moment, the possibility of the ROK army's participation in the Taiwan-China war is great, because the new South Korean government is run by the pro-Japan conservative South Koreans (PJCSK) led by Yoon Suk-yeol who regards himself as the obedient servant of Tokyo and Washington.

But, if the liberal government of the Democratic Party retakes the power in five years, the situation will be different.

It is not easy to predict the outcome of the TA-China war. But, it is likely that the economies of the three Asian countries and Taiwan will be so devastated that it will take long time to recover. It is possible that the Japanese economy will be so damaged that Japan might lose its status of super military power.

As for the Unites States, the destruction of China and Japan means the elimination of present enemy (China) as well as the potential enemy (Japan). So, the U.S. will be the winner.

There are reasons for the U.S. to come out of the TA-China war with little damage. To begin with, the U.S. territory is far away from the battle ground. It is likely that the role of the U.S. may be limited to the provision of weapons and air and sea battle support without sending GIs to the battle ground. The actual shooting and killing will be dome by the Japanese and Korean soldiers. Here we see the tragic scenario of the Ukraine-Russia War repeats itself.

As indicated above, it is likely that no one will come out winner except the U.S. However, if Japan survives the TA-China war and if it has some economic and military capability left, the next target of conquest will be North Korea. Here, Japan needs the support of South Korea and Washington.

As long as the pro-Japan conservative government rules South Korea, Japan can count on the participation of ROK armed forces to join the attack against North Korea.

Now, the American armed forces are likely to allow the Japanese invasion into North Korea, because Washington must reward Japan for its participation in the TA-China war.

The irony is that the history may repeat itself. We remember the Taft-Katsura Agreement of 1905 signed by Katsura Taro, prime minister of Japan and William Howard Taft, secretary of war of the U.S. By virtue of this agreement, Washington let Japan to swallow Korea, while Japan overlooked the American colonization of the Philippines.

However, if North Korea is attacked, it will fight back, even with nuclear weapons, if needed. The cost of Japan's war against North Korea will be too high to continue its Holy War 2.0.

Conclusion

The Neo-Meiji Restoration Group (NMRG) led by the Kishi Nobuske-Shinzo Abe line political forces has been preparing the second holy war.

Several measures have been applied to prepare the holy war. The Nippon Gaigi has been able to hide from the Japanese people Japan's worst crimes committed during WWII so that they would support the second holy war. The return of Shinto provides radical nationalism needed for holy war 2.0.

The acceleration of remilitarization, global lobbying campaign for the justification of the first holy war, the Washington-Tokyo complicity for anti-China war and the traditional submissiveness of the Japanese people are the factors which will facilitate the Japan's readiness for war.

The impact of Japan's remilitarization and its readiness for the second holy war makes East Asian countries, especially China and Korea, nervous and uneasy and this will intensify armament race leading to regional security instability.

Japan's readiness for war is likely to increase the probability of TA-China war. The TA-China is likely to destroy the military capability and the economies of Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea. These countries will be losers. Only the U.S. will be the winner.

Now, if Japan survives the TA-China war and if it still has military striking capability left, Japan will attack North Korea with the support of South Korea and the U.S.

If attacked, North Korea will hit back, even with nuclear weapons. Here, again, there is no guarantee that Japan will win.

In short, the dream of restoring the pre-1945 Japan and conduct the second holy war is likely to remain a dream, no more, no less.

The drive for the second holy war is indeed an adventure which is "Seppuk adventures." This is the legacy of Sinzo Abe.

Soon, Japan will become a "normal country" with its regular armed forces and the right to conduct war. If the "normal Japan" has the ambition of conducting holy war 2.0, it is likely that Japan will be damaged so badly that it will be difficult to recover.

To conclude, it is sincerely hoped that "Normal Japan" would abandon the dream of ruling again Asia by force and, instead cooperate with China, Korea and other countries for the creation of "East Asia Co-Prosperity and Co-Security Sphere" which will respect the national sovereignty of countries of the region, promote the regional peace and assure the regional prosperity.

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